The USS Abraham Lincoln has joined the USS Carl Vinson in the North Arabian Sea. Within the next couple weeks one of the carriers will make the move through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian gulf. Pretty standard, as the United States normally does maintain one carrier in each body of water. But this time the threat situation is different.
In December, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. A sixth of all western oil flows through there, so such a move would have huge economic repercussions. Iran made the threat after President Obama and other world leaders promised new sanctions on the country for it's continued nuclear program. The Iranian government followed that threat with another one, stating that no US carriers would be allowed to enter the Persian Gulf.
The situation has been worse, after an Iranian scientist was assassinated in Tehran. Iran was quick to blame Israel, the US, and the United Kingdom for the attack, even claiming they have proof of the CIA and MI6's involvement. Russia entered the fray with a very bold statement that, "any attack on Tehran is an attack on Moscow"; and that they will defend Iran from "western aggression". The response from the United States Navy has been to continue normal functions, though on higher alert, and to rescue three groups of Iranian fishermen from pirates and their own sinking ships.
Now enter China, Iran's long time ally. "China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons," Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, was quoted as saying. China followed this statement by cutting their oil imports from Iran, by half. A huge number considering how much oil China has been taking in. The premier continued to say, "Some people said my visit was to secure oil, which is narrow-minded. I came here for friendship." Interestingly enough China has apparently decided that world opinion matters more than defending a single country.
So now we must wait and see when the United States carrier goes into the Strait, what will Iran do? Will they go through with their threats, and hope Russia will really save them? Or will they just simply back down, realizing that such stupidity would truly not be worth it. Expect Russia to make the first response, either by reinforcing their statements or by backing down on them now that China won't be joining them.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned against any military intervention against Iran over its nuclear program, saying a strike on Iran would "trigger war and chaos in the Middle East."
ReplyDeleteI laughed out loud at first until I read further in the article and realized that it wasn't an article from The Onion. I'll withhold judgement until I get a few confirming sources, but until then I'll just stand here, alternately slack-jawed, then screaming out loud to myself in my apartment while I fold my ACU's (Army Combat Uniforms).
THE MIDDLE EAST IS ALREADY AT WAR!!!!!!!